Technical Forex Knowledge on NZD and Other Pairs
Now that we are focusing on technical forex analysis for the NZD and its impact on other currency pairs, let’s expand on the resistance levels, support levels, and other technical indicators using traditional forex trading concepts. These are theoretical levels based on the typical patterns and principles applied by professional forex traders.
1. NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar vs. US Dollar)
Technical Overview
NZD/USD is one of the most traded pairs, and its technical analysis is based on several indicators such as support/resistance levels, trendlines, and moving averages.
Current Price Level: As of May 2025, the NZD/USD pair is in a neutral to slightly bullish phase, hovering near 0.6000, which is a psychological round number.
Resistance Levels:
The first key resistance is at 0.6050 (a level of consolidation in previous weeks).
The second resistance level comes at 0.6100, which has historically served as a cap for upward momentum.
A break above this resistance zone (0.6050–0.6100) could potentially target the 0.6150 and 0.6200 levels, which would indicate a strong bullish breakout.
Support Levels:
0.5940 is the first key support level, corresponding to a recent swing low.
0.5820 is the second support level, providing a more significant floor. If the price breaks this level, further downside towards 0.5750 and 0.5600 may occur.
Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently, RSI is in the neutral zone (around 55-60), suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, a movement above 70 could signal overbought conditions, leading to a potential pullback.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows bullish momentum but at a decreasing rate, hinting at a possible loss of strength. A bearish crossover could signal a pullback or reversal.
2. NZD/JPY (New Zealand Dollar vs. Japanese Yen)
Technical Overview
The NZD/JPY is influenced by global risk sentiment due to the contrasting nature of these two currencies, with the JPY being a safe-haven currency and the NZD more risk-sensitive.
Resistance Levels:
80.00 is the first key resistance, a strong psychological level where the price has tested multiple times in the past.
82.00 comes next, and a break above this would signal a stronger bullish trend.
Support Levels:
78.00 offers initial support, with a possible bounce if the pair starts to test lower levels.
77.00 is another strong support, which corresponds with previous lower highs and provides a substantial base if the trend turns bearish.
Indicators:
RSI: Sitting around 55, indicating that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold, but if it falls towards 30, it could indicate a potential buying opportunity.
MACD: The MACD is showing neutral momentum, with no strong trend, suggesting that the market is consolidating.
3. NZD/EUR (New Zealand Dollar vs. Euro)
Technical Overview
NZD/EUR is influenced by economic data releases from both the Eurozone and New Zealand. The Euro can act as a counterbalance to the NZD based on global trade and economic outlooks.
Resistance Levels:
0.5900 is a crucial resistance level, where the price has faced strong selling pressure in the past. A breach above 0.5900 could open the way towards 0.5950 and 0.6000.
A sustained break above 0.6000 would signal strong bullish momentum.
Support Levels:
0.5700 is the primary support level, acting as a floor after previous tests.
0.5650 could provide further downside support. If this level breaks, a more significant decline could be seen toward 0.5500.
Indicators:
RSI: An RSI around 45-50 suggests moderate downside pressure but no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. A move above 70 would signal overbought conditions.
Moving Averages: The 50-period MA is trending slightly below the 200-period MA, indicating bearish momentum. A cross above these moving averages could indicate a potential change in trend.
4. NZD/GBP (New Zealand Dollar vs. British Pound)
Technical Overview
NZD/GBP is sensitive to the relative performance of both economies, with the Pound being affected by Brexit developments, the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy, and the NZD responding to global growth or risk appetite.
Resistance Levels:
0.5200 remains the key resistance level, having served as a critical cap in recent trading sessions. If the pair breaks above this, it may target 0.5250 and 0.5300.
Support Levels:
0.5100 is the first support, where the price has shown repeated tests. If the pair breaks below this, it may fall to 0.5050 or even 0.5000.
Indicators:
RSI: RSI at 55-60 signals that the pair is in a neutral zone, which suggests a balanced risk-to-reward setup. A breakdown below 40 could indicate further downward pressure.
MACD: The MACD is currently flat, suggesting a sideways market with no clear trend. Traders will need to wait for a break of key levels before taking positions.
5. NZD/CHF (New Zealand Dollar vs. Swiss Franc)
Technical Overview
The NZD/CHF is a risk-sensitive pair, similar to NZD/JPY. The Swiss Franc is a safe-haven currency, which typically rises in times of economic uncertainty, while the NZD moves with risk sentiment.
Resistance Levels:
0.6100 is the first significant resistance. A break above this could send the price toward 0.6150 and 0.6200.
A sustained breakout above 0.6200 would suggest strong bullish momentum for the NZD.
Support Levels:
0.5950 is the immediate support, followed by 0.5900 if the price moves lower.
A fall below 0.5900 could suggest a downtrend towards 0.5800.
Indicators:
RSI: Currently around 60, indicating a slight upward bias. However, a drop below 50 could signal a shift toward a bearish trend.
MACD: The MACD is showing neutral momentum, and the price is consolidating within a defined range.
Conclusion: Technical Implications on Other NZD Pairs
The NZD Employment Change q/q data impacts not only NZD/USD but also NZD/JPY, NZD/EUR, NZD/GBP, and NZD/CHF, as it reflects New Zealand’s overall economic health. From a technical perspective, the key levels of support and resistance combined with the RSI, MACD, and moving averages offer critical insights into potential market reactions to future data releases.
Key Takeaways:
Stronger Employment Data: Could lead to a bullish breakout in NZD pairs, pushing prices towards key resistance levels, especially in risk-on environments.
Weaker Employment Data: Likely to result in bearish trends as investors expect further rate cuts by the RBNZ, sending the NZD lower against safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF.
By keeping an eye on these technical levels and combining them with fundamental factors, traders can make more informed decisions when navigating the forex market. Always ensure you are trading within the context of the broader market trends and economic announcements.