Forex Technical Outlook – 25 April 2025

By: Expert Technical Forex Analyst

Global Sentiment and Market Context

Markets are entering the final trading days of April 2025 with notable optimism. Equity indices like the Dow Jones (↑1.25%) and the S&P 500 (↑2.15%) are making fresh highs, reflecting strong risk appetite across the board. Oil prices (USOIL at $63.12, ↑0.76%) are stabilizing, indicating a balance between geopolitical risk and demand expectations.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has shown some signs of cooling after recent strength. A key economic catalyst is approaching: the U.S. Retail Sales MoM data, due at 06:00 UTC on 25 April. As a high-impact indicator, this release can trigger volatility across major USD pairs.

High-Impact Event Ahead

Upcoming Economic Release

Retail Sales MoM (U.S.)
Date & Time: 25-April-2025, 06:00 UTC
Impact: High

Forecasted volatility in USD pairs is expected—plan your risk and trade entries accordingly.

Detailed Technical Breakdown of Major Pairs

EUR/USD – Bullish Structure Holding

Current Price: 1.1390 (↑0.51%)
Technical Bias: Bullish
Target: 1.1417 (Short-term resistance)
Support Level: 1.1356 (Volatility-based pivot)
Setup: Price is trading above the 1-hour 50 EMA and forming a series of higher lows. Momentum suggests a push toward 1.1417 is likely in the next 3–4 hours, especially if U.S. retail data disappoints. A break above 1.1417 opens the path to 1.1450.

USD/JPY – Bullish Momentum Maintained

Current Price: 142.699 (↑0.35%)
Technical Bias: Bullish
Target: 143.1578
Support: 142.1442
Setup: The pair is trending strongly with upward support from the moving average on the hourly chart. Bulls are likely aiming for the 143.15 resistance, which aligns with short-term Fibonacci extension levels.

GBP/USD – Testing Psychological Resistance

Current Price: 1.3340 (↑0.54%)
Target: 1.3350 (short-term resistance)
Support: 1.3313
Outlook: Cable has reclaimed key territory after breaking out of consolidation. With a strong bullish daily candle and rising volume, 1.3350 is in focus. A break could push it to 1.3385.

USD/CHF – Bearish Breakout Confirmed

Current Price: 0.8270 (↓)
Technical Bias: Bearish
Pattern: Triangle Breakdown
Target: 0.8228
Resistance: 0.8288
Outlook: A triangle breakdown signals short-term dollar weakness. Sellers may dominate until the 0.8228 level is tested. RSI divergence supports the move.

AUD/USD – Multi-Week Strength

Movement: +4.17% over last 16 days
Interval: Daily
Outlook: A classic trending market. The bullish daily structure is intact. Look for dips toward 0.6600 to be supported for continuation towards 0.6730.

NZD/USD – Strongest Performer

Movement: +6.26% over last 16 days
Outlook: Kiwi is surging. Supported by rising commodity prices and positive trade data, this uptrend could extend toward 0.6330 in coming sessions.

USD/CAD – Bearish Channel Forming

Pattern: Channel Down
Target: 1.3729
Resistance: 1.3899
Duration: 3-day outlook
Comment: Lower highs and a declining moving average confirm bearish pressure. Crude oil’s stability helps the CAD. Sell rallies strategy until 1.3729.

Bearish Patterns to Watch

EUR/NZD – Falling Wedge Breakdown Looming

Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bearish bias)
Target: 1.8844
Resistance: 1.9094
Duration: 1 day
Outlook: Despite the falling wedge’s usual bullish nature, downward momentum continues. Breaking below 1.8900 confirms bearish continuation.

GBP/NZD – Similar Setup to EUR/NZD

Target: 2.2111
Resistance: 2.2343
Outlook: With a 4-hour falling wedge and bearish follow-through, 2.2111 is a likely magnet. Look for price action confirmation before entry.

Bullish Setups in Formation

EUR/CHF – Channel Up Pattern

Target: 0.9481
Support: 0.9384
Outlook: Euro strength coupled with CHF weakness is fueling this channel. Price respecting support zone with strong 1-hour candle closes.

CAD/JPY – Approaching Resistance

Target: 103.4600
Outlook: Riding a strong uptrend. A clean break of 103.46 opens doors to 104.20. Watch oil prices for confirmation.

CAD/CHF – Rising Wedge

Target: 0.5999
Support: 0.5949
Duration: 13 hours
Outlook: The bullish wedge is supported by oil strength and technical formation. Look for volume confirmation before breakout.

Strategic Takeaways

Short-Term Trades (0–8 Hours)

Focus: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF
Bias: Trend-following (Buy dips or breakouts)

Swing Trades (1–3 Days)

Focus: USD/CAD, GBP/NZD
Bias: Wait for breakouts or confirm reversals on 4H chart

Watchlist Additions

AUD/USD & NZD/USD: These are in strong trends—ideal for momentum traders.
CAD/CHF: For wedge breakout strategies with tight risk management.

Risk Note

While technical show directional clarity, macroeconomic shocks—especially from Retail Sales—can quickly invalidate chart patterns. Manage your trades with: